According to a report published by McAfee, a software security firm, virtual espionage will be one of the chief online threats in 2008. The report – the Virtual Criminology Report 2007 – claims that around 120 countries already engage in virtual espionage and the Chinese government is one of the main perpetrators. How true these claims are is unclear but one can assume that cyber-terrorism is something we’ll be seeing more of. Potential cyber targets include financial markets, telecommunications infrastructure, government computer networks, electricity services and air traffic control systems. Of course, cyber-attacks have already happened. In April 2007 Estonian banks, government computers and media were attacked by (as yet) unidentified cyber-soldiers. Another area of concern is corporate espionage and cyber-attacks from organised gangs of cyber-criminals. One of the fascinating questions reports such as this throw up is whether warfare itself will change. At the moment most intelligence agencies and military planners are talking about ‘fourth generation warfare’. First generation warfare was the era of line and column, second generation was machine guns and artillery, third generation was tanks and aircraft and fourth generation is loose networks enabled by information technology. In other words, we have moved from physical power used to destroy physical targets to indirect attacks (often virtual) that are used to destroy the hearts of minds of soldiers, politicians and the public. These ‘small wars’ are difficult to win because what is very often required is extreme patience and restraint. Moreover, the Internet has given the ‘enemy’ an almost impregnable sanctuary in which to hide and make mischief.

A study conducted by an American psychologist says that when people are given a tenth-of-a-second look at two competing political candidates they can predict quite accurately which candidate would win a real life election. The research, by Alexander Todorov at Princeton University, found that predictions were 70% accurate and seems to indicate that decisions – at least about politicians – are based more on superficial, reactive, instinct than considered, rational, thought about preferred policies. Similar studies have shown that people tend to gravitate towards ‘good looking’ people and that good-looking individuals tend to be more successful than less attractive people. So perhaps looks really are everything. Implications? Given that US studies have consistently shown that voters prefer tall, attractive politicians (with hair) to short (balding) politicians perhaps Arnold Schwarzenegger isn’t such an aberration after all and we’ll see more actors, models and good-looking celebrities running for political office in the future.

By the year 2050, 80% of the world’s population will live in cities; currently it’s 50%.This trend presents a number of challenges to policy makers around the world, not least because cities consume roughly 75% of world energy. Hence cities are in a fairly unique position when it comes to global warning because they are both a central problem and a central solution. For example, transport is a key user of energy in the urban environment and city governments are in a strong position to influence how transport is delivered. Equally, planning regulations mean that city governments can influence how buildings are constructed and how low-carbon technologies are incorporated into large infrastructure projects. A few of the things we’ll therefore start to see in the future include low-carbon building materials, increased investment in energy efficient public transport, locally-farmed energy and a plethora of regulation and taxation aimed at making local citizens and organisations environment friendly.